MLB Teams to Watch

More than a few teams around the bigs are working their way back into contention, whether or not you’re paying them any attention. Some just had bad luck in the first half. Some are ready to welcome back injured stars. And some, well they just can't play much worse.
Here's the breakdown on five teams to watch as baseball heads toward the postseason.
1.) The New York Yankees.
Flatly, if you wrote the Yankees off in the first half, you’re an idiot. Sure, they were wallowing below .500, but if Darth Vader can build a second Death Star, surely this Evil Empire can erase a 10-game deficit in the second half.
The writing was really on the wall all along, with two indisputable facts going in the Yankees’ favor. First, a simple look at their run differential shows the Yankees record hardly reflected their overall play. As of the All-Star break, New York had scored 70 more runs than they had allowed. Seventy! That should have translated into a 50-35 record, but the Yankees entered the break with just 42 wins – one game under .500.
Then look at their schedule: Tampa Bay, Toronto, Kansas City, Baltimore, the White Sox, Kansas City again and Toronto again before they’ll play another legitimate contender (Cleveland for a three-game set starting Aug. 10).
Need more reasons to think the Yankees will still be playing well into October?
The Red Sox have hardly set the world afire after a strong start to the year. Boston is just 19-22 since June 30, and while the Yankees haven’t made up a ton of ground – well, this is still the Red Sox we’re talking about. Aside from that four-game run in October of 2004, what in baseball history makes you think they’re NOT going to choke the division away?
True, the Yanks will still need some help, but they’re the one team guaranteed to go out and get it. Phil Hughes should be back soon, Robinson Cano, Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon can’t possibly be this bad in the second half, and hey, Joe Torre has been screwing up bullpens for years. It hurts in the playoffs, but the Yanks will cross that bridge when they come to it.
2.) The Minnesota Twins.
Just when the AL Central looked like a two-team race, the Twins go out and win their first four games of the second half.
The Twins young pitching is finally in place, including Matt Garza, who looked great in a 2-1 loss to Detroit on Tuesday. Without a bunch of stiffs taking up rotation spots in the second half and with a healthy (hopefully) Joe Mauer and a red-hot Justin Morneau to go with the always wonderful Torii Hunter, Minnesota has all the makings of a big run. Oh, and anyone remember when the Twinkies were 47-39 and 11 games back of the Tigers at last year’s All-Star break? How'd that turn out?
The Twins are just seven games back now in the ultra-competitive Central and are closing in quickly. Don’t forget, this is a team that has gone to the postseason in four of the past five years. They know how to win.
3.) Philadelphia Phillies
Hey, I’m from Philly, so I’m well aware that this won’t actually happen. But during the past few seasons, the Phils have been a second-half team (going 45-30 after the break last year and 43-30 in 2005, 40-35 in 2004), and unlike those campaigns, they didn’t have nearly as much ground to make up this year.
The Phils are hampered by injuries to Jon Leiber, Freddy Garcia, Brett Myers and Tom Gordon, which also kills what would have been their biggest trading assets, but don’t be surprised if the front office does whatever it takes to get over the hump this year and add an arm or two (or three or four).
In his ESPN.com column, Keith Law points out that the Phillies’ farm system is all but bare, and that with a group of sluggers (Utley, Howard, Rollins) all in their absolute prime, it’s win now time for Philly. If they can add the arms they need in a deadline deal, watch out. They’re every bit as good as the inconsistent Mets or the equally injury prone Braves.
4.) Chicago Cubs
I don’t want to jinx anything, but the Cubs are finally playing like a team that spent $300 million in the offseason. The young kids are finally getting to play, Aramis Ramirez has been excellent, Alfonso Soriano has come on strong and the pitching has actually been pretty good, with Carlos Zambrano finally re-establishing himself as one of the league’s top starters.
Like the Yankees, Chicago actually has a run differential that indicates their record is a bit of an anomaly. The Cubs have outscored opponents by 40 runs this year, virtually the same amount as first-place Milwaukee. In fact, the Cubs' expected record is actually a half-game better than the Brewers'.
So why is Chicago trailing by 4.5 games in the division? In one-run games, the Cubs are 12-15. Milwaukee, on the other hand, is 16-11. The Cubs are also just 1-6 in extra-inning games this year. Part of the team’s struggles in close contests has to do with an inconsistent bullpen, but much of this is simply luck and will even out over the course of a season.
The big question for the Cubs now, however, is ownership. With the team up for sale, fans have to wonder if the front office will have the leeway to make the big trades necessary for a run into October. The Cubs desperately need a bat who gets on base in right field and bullpen help is an absolute must.
5.) Seattle Mariners
The Mariners are sort of a mystery. Tucked away in the Pacific Northwest, they’ve been largely ignored on a national basis, but take a look at the standings: Seattle is just two games behind the Angels and sport the fifth-best record in the Majors.
Unlike the teams we’ve already mentioned, however, Seattle’s secondary numbers look bleak. The M’s have only outscored opponents by 15 runs, and actual record is five games better than their expected mark at this point in the season.
Still, there’s reason for hope. Jeff Weaver won’t be getting many more starts, and with a 6.82 ERA, that’s a good thing. Felix Hernandez is once again healthy and pitching like an ace. Ichiro has a deal to stay in Seattle. The Mike Hargrove distractions are in the past. Richie Sexson can’t possibly hit .202 the rest of the season. And Adam Jones (no, not the "Makin' it rain" Adam Jones) looks like he’s ready to be a late-season call-up that makes some big noise down the stretch. And let’s not forget the AL’s best closer in J.J. Putz.
Hey, on paper, Seattle’s nowhere near the same class as the Angels. But the beauty of baseball is the games aren’t played on paper.
That’s good news for the Mariners as well as the Yankees, Twins, Phillies and Cubs. Because while they were written off by most observers a month ago, they should be feared by the teams watching them grow ever closer in their rearview mirrors now.
- David Hale